A major task of sports analytics is player evaluation.

In professional basketball, the accurate prediction of scoring opportunities based on strategic decision-making is crucial for space and player evaluations. However, traditional models often face challenges in accounting for the complexities of off-ball movements, which are essential for accurate predictive performance. In this study, we propose two mathematical models to predict off-ball scoring opportunities in basketball, considering both pass-to-score and dribble-to-score movements: the Ball Movement for Off-ball Scoring (BMOS) and the Ball Intercept and Movement for Off-ball Scoring (BIMOS) models. The BMOS adapts principles from the Off-Ball Scoring Opportunities (OBSO) model, originally designed for soccer, to basketball, whereas the BIMOS also incorporates the likelihood of interception during ball movements. We evaluated these models using player tracking data from 630 NBA games in the 2015-2016 regular season, demonstrating that the BIMOS outperforms the BMOS in terms of scoring prediction accuracy. Thus, our models provide valuable insights for tactical analysis and player evaluation in basketball.

A variety of machine learning models have been proposed to assess the performance of players in professional sports. However, they have only a limited ability to model how player performance depends on the game context. This paper proposes a new approach to capturing game context: we apply Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) to learn an action-value Q function from 3M play-by-play events in the National Hockey League (NHL). The neural network representation integrates both continuous context signals and game history, using a possession-based LSTM. The learned Q-function is used to value players' actions under different game contexts. To assess a player's overall performance, we introduce a novel Game Impact Metric (GIM) that aggregates the values of the player's actions. Empirical Evaluation shows GIM is consistent throughout a play season, and correlates highly with standard success measures and future salary.